What’s more fitting on the last day of the year than providing predictions for the next year? I’ve never done these before but like the idea - it’s a good way to force me to think about the coming year as well as keep me honest when looking back. Our minds and memories are incredible fallible so by putting it in public writing it’s much more difficult to refute.

And now onto my predictions:

  • The overall economy takes a hit. We’ve already seen cracks and I expect them to take a bigger hit in 2019. Given the political and global climate it feels as if we’re walking on eggshells and it will only take a little crack to send things falling. The S&P is currently at just over $2,500 but I expect at the end of the 2019 it will be down to below $2,200.
  • Facebook privacy concerns are overblown. As much as I hate to admit this I don’t expect much to happen to Facebook despite the coverage. I expect them to take a few positive steps to allay the concerns but the Facebook economic machine will continue going strong and will recover after the quarterly earning reports.
  • Amazon continues to dominate. Amazon has been moving further and further away from ecommerce and I expect them to make more meaningful moves in this direction. It may be another surprising acquisition but I’m bullish on Amazon making strong moves in 2019.
  • China vs US becomes a bigger deal. Given the existing climate this will only get worse and worse in 2019. I expect a growing trade war as both sides become more and more entrenched and refuse to settle their differences.

I plan to put my money where my mouth is and invest in the first 3. The first two I will rely on options while for Amazon I will buy the stock.


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